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Without much doubt, the Volkswagen emissions story is one of the greatestl corporate disasters in recent decades. As a proud VW owner, I’m shocked that a company of its size and reputation would have ever allowed itself to get into so much trouble.

The highly abridged story is as follows. An independent test revealed that some VW diesel cars contained software designed to trick emissions testers. If the software noticed that the car was undergoing an emissions test, it would change the engine settings to reduce nitrogen oxide output to the lowest possible level, thus tricking the testers. When the car was allowed back on the road, the engine settings would be reset, allowing emissions – up to 40 times higher than legally permitted – to be released. VW put code into their cars that was deliberately designed to break US environmental laws. It also breaches environmental regulations in many other countries. Up to 11 million cars are affected and we are awaiting news on exactly what these cars are.

It was a monumentally audacious trick. It’s beyond me how, with 11 million affected cars on the road, they didn’t imagine they would eventually be found out. Now that the fraud is in the open, VW face massive lawsuits from a whole raft of countries. They cannot sell any more diesel cars in the US – both for this year and next year. Switzerland has banned the sale of further diesel cars. Presumably more countries will follow. All owners of affected cars may be compelled to return their cars to their dealers, so that a software fix can be applied to the cars. If the cars are not as powerful after the remedial fix or if taxes are increased for these models, VW face massive class action lawsuits from millions of annoyed drivers around the world. VW’s reputation – indeed the reputation of the German motor industry – is badly tarnished, resulting in enormous job losses down the line. This may spell the end of diesel cars. People with breathing difficulties, such as cystic fibrosis or asthma, may well be encouraged to sue Volkwagen for putting their lives in danger.

Given the implications as described above, I cannot understand how VW’s legal team would ever countenance such a thing. Their job is to protect the company under all circumstances. Permitting such a fix to go through would have been idiocy of the highest level. My assumption, at this time, is that they simply didn’t know, which should imply that the CEO did not know either. However the same cannot be said for their head of engineering. To pull off this massive fraud, somebody wrote the code, other people tested the code and yet other people signed off on the code. Testing must have been quite sophisticated to ensure it worked in real world conditions, so we are talking about a lot of engineers and a considerable enough budget to pay for all this.

For this reason, I do not believe this was a massive conspiracy orchestrated from the top of VW. You could of course argue that “everybody is doing it” as an incentive to commit the fraud, but so far it appears that just one engine produced by Volkwagen is affected. It looks like a solo run by someone in engineering – someone far too clever for their own good. Whoever dreamed it up, signed up to this scheme or attempted to cover it up should face criminal charges.

Despite the bad news, there is a silver lining. Ironically this could be the best thing to happen to international business culture in quite a while. The incident means that corporations need to double down on their business conduct policies. No matter how good any corporation perceives itself to be, this story shows that a small number of people can do irreparable damage to the entire enterprise in pursuit of short term profitability objectives. It also perhaps signals a concerted move towards cleaner technologies. In the medium term, testing of diesel cars will be revamped. There have been significant issues with these tests for years, with the industry arguing vociferously against more regulation. They have now lost this argument. In a year or two, all diesel cars will be subjected to a far more stringent regime. This is good for all of us. In the longer term, it is likely that diesel will diminish in importance, though it could be argued that electric vehicles cannot match the power and durability of diesel engines. Either way, it will signal a major change in the industry.

Whatever the outcome, plenty of lessons have been learned.

I only started watching Game of Thrones a few months ago. Having finally brought myself up to date, I am converted. Here are some of the reasons why. Lots of spoilers, so if you haven’t seen it, my apologies.

The Geography

I was originally attracted to Game of Thrones when I discovered that southern Westeros was just a slightly modified, upturned and greatly enlarged version of the island of Ireland. King’s Landing is Galway, Casterly Rock is Dublin, and Oldtown is Belfast. Sort of.

There are also interesting similarities with Britain, with King’s Landing not so different, geographically, to London; and Lannister and Stark not echoing Lancaster and York. The Great Wall is clearly a nod in the direction of Hadrian’s Wall, just south of the Scottish borders.

Imprinted over this is a greater European picture. Game of Thrones is set in a region far greater than the UK and Ireland, reaching all the way from Scandinavia to North Africa. You can see traces of cultures throughout the series. The primary focus is English, with Northern and Southern accents plainly evident. Dorne is Spain and Essos is Middle Eastern.

The History

The Game of Thrones borrows nearly everything from the Middle Ages. These were violent times, and nothing is left to the imagination. The castles and keeps are from that period, as is the weaponry and clothing. The tortures, murders and battles are brutally medieval and fights for supremacy are truly Machiavellian.

While the North is a gloomy, dreary place, full of capricious attacks and Viking rampages, Kings Landing is altogether more Byzantine. The slave-kingdoms of the East echo an Islamic caliphate, with “Khaleesi” Daenerys married to the Khan of a Mongol-like horde. The celibate Night Watch watchers are a semi-religious cast: monks of a bygone age.

The Characters

The landscape and historical setting is greatly enhanced by its cast of heroes, pawns and villains. Foremost among them is Tyrion Lannister, played by Peter Dinklage. Tyrion is wonderful – delightfully intelligent, cunning, debauched, humorous and empathic, while suffering damaging abuse and ridicule often from those closest to him. You can’t help but root for him.

Empathy with the misfits and marginalised is a common theme throughout the series. The girl Arya, who would be a boy; Brienne of Tarth, a grown up in the same vein; Bran the crippled boy on his mission to the north; the devious eunuch Varys; John Snow, the illegitimate son of Ned Stark – none of these are minor roles.

Then there are the shades of light and dark. While there are a few unredeemable monsters, many characters are more complex. Few heroes are whiter than white. Catelyn Stark’s treatment of John Snow is one example, as are the motivations of Littlefinger and Sansa Stark in the last series – both people stepping outside their assigned characters when events demand it.

The Stories

The older I get, the more I detest the straightforward story, because nothing in life is straightforward. Most of the time, it’s all incidental mayhem. The creators of Game of Thrones capture this perfectly. There is often an aimlessness about the journeys and unexpected tragedies are alarmingly commonplace.

But the stories, as they are, are compelling. John Snow’s seduction by Ygritte and his subsequent betrayal is heartbreaking, as is Ned Stark’s treatment by Cersei and Joffrey. Tyrion competently defends Kings Landing only to be disgraced by his father. The comeuppance of Theon Greyjoy, a man deserving of his fate, is almost too much to bear.

And you think the stories are going in a certain direction when – BAM – they turn into something altogether more ghastly. The Red Wedding, anyone?

A link to today?

Many science fiction and fantasy stories tell us more about today than they do about the times they were written. Game of Thrones is no different. It’s a modern tale in that it speaks to contemporary gender roles, despite an official insistence (by the likes of Tywin Lannister) on traditionalism. Arya and Brienne want more as women in a largely patriarchal culture. Homosexual relationships are seen as normal, if still somewhat secretive.

Ravens and the little birds of Lord Varys serve as a rudimentary Internet, and Varys’ character speaks to achievement by merit as opposed to noble background.

Unlike the Lord of the Rings, there is less racism. There is bad and good in all cultures. This is clearest with the Wildlings, as they flee from the terror to their north. The Night Watch acknowledge them as humans like themselves, with the misfortune of living on the wrong side of the Wall.

There is also an interplay between religion and atheism taking place that mirrors the outside world. Stanis Baratheon represents a world of religious fanaticism while other characters are more agnostic in their outlook. This, of course, is not an issue of this age alone, but in a world threatened by ISIS and Islamist fanaticism it rings a bitter note.

Final note?

I cannot wait until the start of series 5. I just can’t.

This latest horror story from Paris has filled me with dread. What with all the kidnappings, the rapes, the bombings and beheadings in the past year. The mass graves, the terrorism of innocent people, the droves of young men burning their passports and pledging allegiance to the harshest edicts of a 7th century philosophy. Where does this instinct to kill and butcher come from? Is it Islam?

The whole Islam / Islamism debate is a minefield, to borrow an unfortunate metaphor. To what extent are you being Islamophobic when you criticise these brutal killers and their methods? There is a danger you will find common ground with some of the worst, most right wing elements in Western society. If you stay quiet about it you make a mockery of the values upon which our society is based – tolerance, empathy, the robust sharing and challenging of ideas, to mention a few. It’s a tightrope.

Islamism should be a core target of sceptics and humanists, because it represents the very worst extreme that blind belief can lead one to. Homeopathy and psychics might screw up someone’s value system and quality of life, but Islamism kills and terrorises, while subjecting all sorts of minorities to cruelty and despair. It’s a depravity – the very negation of free thought and forthright argument.

On the other hand, humanism stands with all people: black, white and brown, rich and poor, native and foreign, male and female, young and old. People from Muslim countries have as much a right to live in peace, security and happiness as anyone else. Castigating and criminalising whole sections of society just because of the actions of a small few is repulsive to me.

People are precious. People are important. The ideas in their minds are not so special. Nobody should ever be killed or injured for their beliefs. but beliefs should never give anyone a license to kill or injure. For that reason, all beliefs should be subjected to robust scrutiny and if necessary, ridicule.

People have mothers, brothers, sisters and friends. Ideas don’t. People shout with joy and weep tears. We worry for them when they get sick. We miss them when they die. Ideas don’t have hospitals, nor do we give them gravestones. People can live on after abandoning damaging beliefs, but it so often happens that damaging beliefs result in death.

Islam is a belief. But mass killings of the past centuries didn’t all need Islam to justify them. It’s just the ogre of the moment. There is something deeper here that can take a belief and turn it into something truly evil. When we criticise the average believer, we taking aim at a convenient target, but it’s the wrong one. It’s radicalism in all its forms that we need to focus on.

I will let you into a little secret of mine. Every night, when I lie in bed, tucked under the duvet, I imagine myself flying a spacecraft to the stars. The craft is accelerating at relativistic speeds, often surpassing the speed of light as it heads out into the wider universe. It’s automatic, it’s comforting and it helps me fall asleep.

I’m sure many of us have similar mental rituals. Indeed, when I think about it, life is dominated by rituals that give us pleasure. What is our devotion to football, music and any of a million other pastimes and activities, but a kind of strange ritual? There is nothing life changing or cataclysmic about any of them – indeed from the outside they might seem a bit pointless and crazy – but without them life would be colourless. We need these regular indulgences.

Our brains seem to relish the familiar. Neural pathways, once laid down, are nourished by repeated use. Psychologists talk about “confirmation bias” – our tendency to absorb only that which appeals to us. But it’s much more than that. This comfort with the safe, the known and the well understood: it’s an essential part of our being.

Prayer is no different. For many, there is a comfort to be found in repeated recitations of the Our Father and the Rosary, or for others, the Islamic, Buddhist and Hindu chants. But there is something else about prayers that make them so compelling.

“To thee do we send forth our sighs,

Mourning and weeping in this valley of tears”.

The Salve Regina (aka “Hail Holy Queen”) is a thousand year old Catholic prayer. It speaks of a time when hardship was everywhere. Disease, brutality, avarice and accident could take everything away in seconds. If reality was so miserable, then why not accept a glorious fantasy? With a readymade industry of clerics and theologians willing to hone and interpret the myth (and punish non-belief), compliance would have been irresistible.

Reality is not so terrifying for many people nowadays. Medicine, law, technology and political reforms have made life vastly more tolerable. Religion has become optional, if not thoroughly second-rate. It’s not the only source of comfort anymore – instead we can indulge our passions, listen to music, play video games or surf the Internet. We are less dependent on heavenly promises to help us get through life.

I’m an atheist. For me, these old stories are no more realistic than Harry Potter. But nevertheless, I wonder how my worldview would have been shaped had I been born to a life of oppression and drudgery, where the pleasures I take for granted were not easily available?

There are plenty of people living lives devoid of freedom, security or hope. All they have are their prayers. We atheists need to understand this. It’s not enough to tell such people they are living a delusion if we cannot demonstrate alternative – and realistic – routes to fulfilment and mental health. Indeed, if prayer is the only comfort they have, who are we to deprive them even of this? We need to address the underlying causes.

Until then? Religion is here to stay.

I want you too forecast the weather on the 21st of May next year. 2015. Off you go.

The options are quite few. Sunny, cloudy, rainy, showery, windy. Snow? Not so much. We’re talking about May after all.

Ken Ring predicted snow in May last year. Furthermore, he predicted regular quantities of snow for every month leading up to May. According to Ken, the first months of 2014 in Ireland would be bitterly cold. As it happened, we barely got snow in January, not to mention the fact that our winter was mild, as winters go. What’s worse, he failed to predict the intense winter storms of 2014. As predictions go, Ring’s analysis was well of the mark.

Here’s the thing. If the options are relatively few, then there is a good chance that some of your predictions will turn out correct. Even if you guess at random, you won’t get everything wrong. Sometimes you will predict sunshine, and you’ll be right. Ken Ring, who is wont to make a huge number of predictions, knows this very well. He’s made a career from crowing about his correct answers, all the while expecting that few people will call him out for getting it wrong. If they do call him out, he’s got plenty of stock answers to give. “Forecasting is an inexact science”, “It was partially right”, “I was out by just a few days”, “it wasn’t quantity, it was regularity” – special pleadings that allow him wiggle room from what, ultimately, was just guesswork.

If one prediction can be excused, a whole year of them is more difficult to explain away. That’s what one Irish blogger has done – taking his predictions and scoring him on each one for accuracy. So far, at just over 26% (and that’s being generous), he’s not doing that well, and is well short of the 80% accuracy he claims to have.

Ken Ring was on the radio a few days ago (96FM Cork Opinion Line November 14) and as usual he captivated his audience by giving specific predictions at specific locations for days many months in the future. When I was listening to this, I wondered why this guy didn’t have the ears of every major weather forecaster in the world? I can think of two answers to this. Either he’s right and they’re too arrogant, stupid and/or conniving to listen to him, or he’s talking – how can I say this delicately? – ah yes – bullshit.

Weather forecasting is a critically important field, affecting our lives in all sorts of ways. Bad weather can cause financial hardship, destroy livelihoods, ruin economies and cost lives. Flooding, storms, droughts, freezes and heatwaves all cause damage, sometimes into the billions of dollars.  If we knew for certain that an enormous hurricane was going to roll across our city in 3 months time, imagine what could be done to save lives and protect homes and businesses. Who wouldn’t want better, more accurate forecasts? According to Ken, the world’s met offices don’t want them. Maybe they want to keep such fantastic knowledge away from the public? Maybe Big Weather is in league with Big Pharma or the CIA or whatever you are having yourself, to ensure governments and insurance companies are on the receiving end of huge damages claims? The mind boggles.

A little bit of scientific understanding tells us that the atmosphere is hugely complicated, and that errors, even in the best prediction models, get larger and larger over time. Five to seven days is the limit these days, and let’s face it – it’s not bad. Governments and agencies will continue to push back this envelope as much as they can, because ultimately it’s worth it. The science of weather forecasting has, er,  a bright future, so to speak.

It is reasonable, therefore, to assume that Ken Ring is not a great forecaster, but instead, a crank. The type of crank who thinks he’s Galileo because he thinks he’s stumbled across something amazing, yet nobody who cares about their credibility will listen to him. There was just one Galileo. Cranks who think they are Galileo, or Einstein, or Steven Hawking? Thousands and thousands. Just ask physics professors, who are sick to the teeth of receiving unsolicited and unreadable manuscripts from armies of lone geniuses.

It’s a pity Ken gets such publicity. Clearly he’s answering a desire in people to know what the future holds. In this way, he’s no better than a fortune teller or astrologer. What’s bigger the pity is that media organisations line up to listen to his words of wisdom, all the while discrediting real weather forecasting organisations. All they would need to do is to measure him by his predictions.

Via @therealbanksy

Via @therealbanksy

A couple of days ago, a local politician noted with interest the number of “non-indigenous” people, in one instance, who have been given houses off the housing list. While the comment itself seemed innocuous, the reaction was predictable, with many commenters on social media vehemently agreeing with her. A Twitter friend, who is in the public eye, sees this attitude every day. When politicians make such announcements, widespread agreement is almost guaranteed from a large section of the community.

Facebook comments

But no. None of these people are racist. It’s something else, apparently.

The thing is, if that “something else” is not racism, it’s still very ugly.

And in some ways they are right, it’s not just about race. It goes way beyond that. Travellers, obese people, single mothers, feminists, homosexuals, people of other religions, the non-religious – all targets of the same anger and prejudice. Easy scapegoats for those with an axe to grind.

Left to fester, this can boil over into something like what happened in Waterford this weekend, a semi-pogrom in the 21st Century. Idiots taking the law into their own hand.

This is why politicians need to be so careful with their public utterances. The anger, the scapegoating and the hatred is all out there, a background noise in our society. We need community leaders to do their bit to address this – to direct the anger to where it needs to go – not stoking the flames of prejudice. When councillors rush towards populism to appease latent bigotry, they have to share some of the blame when things get out of control.

Last night, my eldest son, who is preparing to do his Junior Cert this year, asked me a question. Why should he study history, he asked, wanting to know what jobs might be available after doing it.

In truth, I don’t think there are many directly related jobs, unless you fancy being a historian or an author, but I think that’s missing the point. History is a vitally important subject for reasons that transcend basic job market economics.

First of all, it gives us a sense of who we are, and how we came to be. It tells us stories about our locality, our country and our civilisation that in turn, give us an insight into why things are how they are. Great historical events don’t die quickly. They create echoes that last to and through our present day. History is there in everything we experience. By understanding this we enrich our minds.

Secondly, the stories it tells can often be related to decisions relevant to the present day. History is bubbling over with stories of people who had great decisions to make, and the consequences of those decisions are often described in gruesome detail. History is probably the only laboratory in which many of our decisions can be tested. In history we find context, and from that context we can move forwards, mindful of the mistakes made in the past that lead nowhere, or even to disaster.

Thirdly, history can do wonders for our critical thinking skills. Where there is a narrative, there are often one or many counter-narratives. We learn from our past that nothing is quite as straightforward as it seems, and that the stories we are told often have gaping holes or mind-boggling complexities. We discover that that simple stories often deliberately overlook or distort events in order to push a particular viewpoint or ideology. Being sensitive to these distortions is no bad thing. A careful reading of history asks us to look beyond propaganda and to seek out the untidiness, while also valuing expert consensus where it exists.

History is a powerful subject. It would be a pity to see it commoditised or deprecated simply for its job-winning value. History has to be seen as more than the means to an end, as there is so much to be learned beyond our first job. It’s a type of learning that can accompany us throughout our lives.
It’s a friend to the grave.

Last Friday, I was climbing a stepladder when it gave way, collapsing in a heap on the ground with me onboard. I wrenched my foot in the process. It hurt. A lot.

After a sleepless night and a morning trip to the doctor, I was assured I had not broken anything, although a few foot muscles might be somewhat worse for wear. I’m recovering quickly now, my chances of making Brazil’s first 11 slightly diminished.

What has struck me is how difficult the small things become when something like this happens. Carrying things, crossing over uneven ground, descending steps, opening and closing doors, going to the bathroom: all became challenging tasks. Just a small walk up down the hall was beyond me for a while. What I’ve also noticed is the kindness of people – the cup of coffee out of the blue, the genuine concern, the people willing to get things for me (I could get used to that).

I can’t imagine what it would be like to break my ankle as I am greatly assured it is pain an order of magnitude more intense. Neither can I imagine what it would be like to live with disability or chronic pain on a daily basis. I’m nowhere near understanding these things. What I did get was the tiniest of insights. It’s given me pause for thought.

This blog is well worth a read, given how ready we are to complain and belittle our country here. Any time we receive praise from outsiders, an a cynical response can be expected, almost by reflex. When I was growing up, Ireland was poor by the standards of neighbouring European countries. Since then, and despite the economic crash, we are broadly on a par with them. That’s a huge change in fortunes. It’s not to say we don’t have problems, or inequality, or lots more to do to improve our country, but parroting the line that we are a basket case, or the worst of the worst, is wildly off the mark.

unshavedmouse's avatarunshavedmouse

Dear Whiny Bitches,

How’ve you been? I am good. Let’s talk about that recent survey. You know the one? Recently something called the Good Country Index released a survey stating that Ireland was the “best” country in the world. Now, there’s a been a lot of confusion on this so first of all let’s just clarify that the survey was not necessarily the best place in the world to live, the survey was actually trying to measure which countries contribute most to the welfare of humanity (in stuff like global aid, peace-keeping, diplomacy, fighting climate change and so on) and which countries are dragging everyone else down. Now, I’ll admit I was surprised that we got the number one spot, not stunned, but surprised. But sure, we do give a lot of money to overseas aid and we’ve been involved in UN Peacekeeping missions since the early sixties so fine…

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“I don’t give a fuck”.

Interesting phrase, that.

Do we say it because we don’t have enough fucks to begin with? Can you first borrow a fuck in order to then give that fuck away? And if so, how should you pay the fuck back? With interest, or something? Presumably fucks aren’t that cheap, otherwise we’d all be giving fucks to everyone, but we’re not doing that, obviously. Wouldn’t you be highly embarrassed if you were too miserly to even give one fuck away in a market where trading in fucks was brisk?

Surely if you are not giving a fuck, then not taking the fuck in the best place might be in order? You never hear of anyone taking fucks, do you? Is it because we’re all too honest to take one, even if it was lying around in plain daylight? Do we then tell people we don’t give a fuck, only so we don’t look bad in front of others?

Maybe fucks are just conjured from thin air. But then why give the fuck to anyone, as presumably everyone could conjure up fucks any time they like themselves? Perhaps fuck-conjuring is only known to an elite with some sort of black market in play for fuck rip-offs. Not giving one essentially helps to preserve the mystique.

Perhaps we are all born with a set amount of fucks and we are implored by our parents to give those fucks away wisely. That makes the most sense. Then, when we are in a situation where fuck-giving would definitely be in order, it’s withheld, in the plain knowledge that life is long and you never know when a better opportunity to give away that precious fuck might come along.

Interesting that it’s never mentioned who the fuck is for. Doesn’t the word “give” go with an object? You never hear “I gave Tom a fuck last week and he used it to build a swimming pool”, or “I gave a fuck to Jane but it was faulty and it was returned the following day”, or “To Adam, I bequeath all my fucks”. No, it’s just given with no thought as to who is going to get it. In that case, there must be a lot of desperate, unwanted fucks about. I really hope they are neutered or it could become a big problem over time.

Or is it that you don’t give a fuck “about” something? Is that like a song or a verse “about” something – the Mourne Mountains, or the Lovely Rose of Clare? So, it’s some sort of avoidance strategy then, like when it’s your turn to sing, or buy a round? You’ll find the fuck-not-givers in the bathroom, lads.

Most probably it’s a statement of character, like “I don’t eat chocolates for Lent”, or “peanuts give me hives”. What you are saying about yourself is that wonderful and all though fuck giving might be, it’s not for you. Not even on Sundays. You can be followed around, your neighbours can be asked, but you’ll never be seen trying to give a sneaky fuck on the side when nobody is looking. In which case, well done you.

Some people are wont to say “I don’t give two fucks”, implying that they will give one fuck if the price is right. Clearly, these people can be bought. If they get a good deal on the first, they might well consider giving the second one as well. Therefore, the “two fucks” brigade are all liars. Avoid them where possible.

So if you are reading this and are appalled by my misuse of language, let me tell you now that I shouldn’t give a fuck, but actually, I do. Surely somebody has to, otherwise we would live in a world without any fucks at all. What a sad, sad place that would be.