I’m not so worried about Donald Trump becoming the next president of the United States.
Back in 2012, Barack Obama’s campaign was not in good shape. Obama had just presided over four of the toughest years in America since the Great Depression. Unemployment was high. Morale was low. Obama could not call on the magnificent rhetoric that brought him to victory in 2008. He had a record of tenure now, and the indications were not good.
The Republican Party, sensing blood, organised a well resourced campaign to throw him out of power. Their candidate, Mitt Romney, was a fair choice, as he had a better chance of appealing to swing state voters than anyone else on the ticket. The Republicans threw everything at Obama. They fueled their core voters. They tried every trick in the book to dissuade potential democrat voters from turning out. They sent millions on clever attack ads. It was a masterpiece of campaigning and it failed. Obama regained the presidency by a comfortable margin.
In the aftermath, it was clear what lost the Republicans the presidency: demographics. The Republican core vote, appealing to white, self-employed, evangelical, rural and libertarian voters, was no longer enough to win, compared to what was now a majority of minority groups. The Democrats, with their particular appeal to urban, multi-ethnic and well educated voters, had the numbers. Republican Party strategists sensed this. They talked about making their message more appealing to a wider cross section of American society.
None of this happened. Instead, they got Trump.
Donald Trump is the most divisive candidate America has seen in the last 50 years. His only real achievement, since starting his campaign, has been to crystallize a large segment of the Republican base into a red-hot mother lode of fury. He has alienated, not just the target Democratic constituency, but many Republican and evangelical voters, to the point that many of them may well stay home on election day.
Meanwhile, the demographics continue their glacial shift away from the Republican worldview. Bad and all though the numbers were in 2012, it’s worse for them now. They have done nothing to reverse the decline, in fact the opposite is the case. Despite Hillary Clinton’s apparent weaknesses as the Democratic candidate, she has not alienated potential voters in quite the same way and she has given waverers little reason to vote Trump.
It’s hard to see it any other way: the Republican Party are going to lose on an epic scale this year. A Democratic House, Senate and Presidency? It’s on the cards.
Passive Impressions 
I stopped being so sure when I saw him win states with a majority of the votes and not just coming in first. A misstep (or a “smoking gun”) by Hillary and/or a better than expected showing by a third party candidate and then with the electoral college system … .
In other words, it’s Hillary’s to lose and I don’t think he will win but I am not willing to bet on it.
I’ve had a ton of reaction to this post on Facebook. It seems the biggest flaw in my analysis may be that many people who never voted in an election may be encouraged to state their preferences – which is certainly worrying. I’ve also seen Nate Silver’s tweet today which suggests that the margins might be tighter than expected. If I’m wrong, this is a disaster for America and the rest of the world.
Honestly, I don’t spend much time thinking about the consequences. I need my sleep.
And if does win, then there will be the two months inbetween the election and the inauguration when the pundits will explain exactly how worried we should be. Plenty of time for insomnia then.