Map of Ireland by Tourizm Maps © 2006

So far, 2007 has been a momentous year in terms of the political situation in Northern Ireland. Sinn Féin, (the Irish republican party and erstwhile political wing of the IRA), has agreed to join the policing board, announcing finally that the war is over. On the other side of the political fence, the DUP (the majority Unionist party lead by the firebrand preacher Ian Paisley) has greatly lessened it’s rhetoric and looks set to enter into a power-sharing administration with Sinn Féin some time later this year.

Compared to the situation 15 years ago, the current political situation is an incredible departure from what seemed at one stage like an endless war. Even in the last 5 years, the IRA have decommissioned, abandoned criminality, stopped punishment beatings, disbanded as a military organisation, finally agreed to the rule of law and for all this they must be wholeheartedly commended. The Sinn Féin organisation seems now to have fully committed itself to a democratic political path. The ballot box has, at last, won out over the armalite.

Sinn Féin sees itself as being in government, sometime within the next 10 years, both in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. This is not a pipe-dream by any degree of imagination. (Since the 1994 ceasefire it has managed to garner over 10% of the vote in the Republic, making it the 4th biggest political party here). Their stated vision is to finally unify the island, North and South, to end all British influence there.

My question at this stage is – how? Any attempt to transfer power from Britain to the Republic of Ireland will be robustly resisted by Unionists who have not changed their stance (that Northern Ireland remain British) in the last 100 years and, after the low-intensity war of the seventies, eighties and nineties (a.k.a “the Troubles”), are probably more entrenched in their views than ever. How does a party such as Sinn Féin succeed in convincing Unionists that joining an Irish Republic would be in their best interest? The party is avowedly anti-British, working class, socialist, with paramilitary roots and structures that have created a huge degree of distrust within Unionism – an obstacle I can’t see them easily overcoming in the coming decades.

In addition, Sinn Féin have abided by a system of power-sharing in Northern Ireland which gives proportional representation to minority parties based on their share of the vote. Majority rule is clearly a non-runner in Northern Ireland when the political views and loyalties are so far apart. Sinn Féin are a minority party – the second biggest after the DUP – but the percentage differences are relatively small and it is probable that some time in the next 30 or 40 years, they may become the biggest party in Northern Ireland. The problem for them however is that, having resisted majority rule for so long, they can’t just dump power-sharing when they become the majority themselves. Whether they like it or not, they will be joined at the hip to the Unionists in Northern Ireland for the forseeable future.

Neither is it likely that Sinn Féin will ever become the dominant political player in the Republic. Politics in Ireland is based around coalitions with centre-right parties such as Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael taking much of the vote. Apart from Sinn Féin, none of these parties have much stomach for a constitutional fight with Britain or with Unionists over how they should be governed. It’s a view which would resonate also among a large proportion of Southern Irish voters who are more interested in economic prosperity than they are in some sort of political reunification of North and South.

Sinn Féin, therefore, are left with an aspiration, in much the same way as the incumbent Irish political parties “aspire” to re-unification on the island. When it becomes likely, as I think it will, that Sinn Féin will not make much headway in achieving re-unification, what happens then? Is there a possibility that the old chestnut of Irish Unity will come back to haunt this island again some time in the future, and that, yet again, war or hostilities will break out as they have done so many times in the past?

Hopefully, the answer is no. In the end, the Troubles were not so much about political re-unification as they were about civil rights and achieving political influence and justice for the Nationalist community. A well-run political system in Northern Ireland with true representation and fairness may do a lot to head off any future problems as will a Northern Irish state that works hand-in-hand both with Britain and the Republic of Ireland.

Only time will tell.

Bertie Ahern is the Taoiseach (Prime Minister) of Ireland, a position he has held since 1997, roughly the same amount of time that Tony Blair has been in power in the UK. By any standards, he has been one of the most successful politicians this state has ever seen. He was centrally involved in the resolution of the Troubles in Northern Ireland, his economic policies helped to prolong the country’s amazing economic boom, industrial relations have never been so good, and he has demonstrated a remarkable ability to work successfully with other political leaders. It’s hard not to like and admire the guy. On the political front, he has maintained a strong lead in the popular polls throughout his entire tenure. Opposition parties could only seethe with frustration when he grew his political support base during his second term in government. Very rarely in the last 9 years have they been able to land any punches in his direction.

It’s a pretty amazing record for a man who doesn’t, on face value, look like someone who could run a country. He is from a relatively humble background in north Dublin, he has few, if any, academic qualifications. He is not a good public speaker by any stretch of the imagination. He is self-deprecating, quietly spoken and he doesn’t much like conflict. And yet, he has this common touch and ability to work hard that makes him accessible to people in some way. He’s had a remarkable career in politics. Bertie is known here as the Teflon Taoiseach – nothing that has ever been thrown at him has been able to stick for very long. Compared to Tony Blair, who has aged visibly during his tenure over the UK, Bertie still seems fit and healthy.

However the last two weeks have been hugely difficult for Bertie. Information was leaked into the public domain that allege that he took payments from friends and businessmen during the 1990’s. The reason for this was the breakdown of his marriage and his subsequent separation. Under pressure to disclose the details of these payments, he made what he thought was a full public statement, but this only ended up in him getting into deeper water. He revealed during the course of the statement that some businessmen in Manchester had paid him £8,000 for personal use. He has since had to make further public statements, and now with a drip-drip pattern emerging about his personal finances, it seems as if his tenure as Taoiseach, if not quite dead, is in serious trouble.

Even though the country is likely to lose a good leader, this whole incident gives me a strong impression that Irish democracy is quite healthy. Our political class are not above criticism and our media still are able to do their job, irrespective of how it affects the sensibilities of the ruling elite. Ireland went through a period in the 1980’s where businessmen passed huge amounts of money to politicians with a clear expectation of political favours being performed down the line. Planning decisions and rezoning decisions were made that beggared belief, while 20% of the adult population were unemployed and 50,000 people a year were leaving the country. Some of these payments have been revealed through a number of public inquiries but we will never know the full extent of the corruption that existed at that time. When attempts were made by journalists to discover the truth, it was the journalists themselves who ended up in court.

Even though the Bertie incident is minor by comparison with all this, we need to be very careful about introducing a culture of tolerance for all this back into political life.