Map of Ireland by Tourizm Maps © 2006
So far, 2007 has been a momentous year in terms of the political situation in Northern Ireland. Sinn Féin, (the Irish republican party and erstwhile political wing of the IRA), has agreed to join the policing board, announcing finally that the war is over. On the other side of the political fence, the DUP (the majority Unionist party lead by the firebrand preacher Ian Paisley) has greatly lessened it’s rhetoric and looks set to enter into a power-sharing administration with Sinn Féin some time later this year.
Compared to the situation 15 years ago, the current political situation is an incredible departure from what seemed at one stage like an endless war. Even in the last 5 years, the IRA have decommissioned, abandoned criminality, stopped punishment beatings, disbanded as a military organisation, finally agreed to the rule of law and for all this they must be wholeheartedly commended. The Sinn Féin organisation seems now to have fully committed itself to a democratic political path. The ballot box has, at last, won out over the armalite.
Sinn Féin sees itself as being in government, sometime within the next 10 years, both in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. This is not a pipe-dream by any degree of imagination. (Since the 1994 ceasefire it has managed to garner over 10% of the vote in the Republic, making it the 4th biggest political party here). Their stated vision is to finally unify the island, North and South, to end all British influence there.
My question at this stage is – how? Any attempt to transfer power from Britain to the Republic of Ireland will be robustly resisted by Unionists who have not changed their stance (that Northern Ireland remain British) in the last 100 years and, after the low-intensity war of the seventies, eighties and nineties (a.k.a “the Troubles”), are probably more entrenched in their views than ever. How does a party such as Sinn Féin succeed in convincing Unionists that joining an Irish Republic would be in their best interest? The party is avowedly anti-British, working class, socialist, with paramilitary roots and structures that have created a huge degree of distrust within Unionism – an obstacle I can’t see them easily overcoming in the coming decades.
In addition, Sinn Féin have abided by a system of power-sharing in Northern Ireland which gives proportional representation to minority parties based on their share of the vote. Majority rule is clearly a non-runner in Northern Ireland when the political views and loyalties are so far apart. Sinn Féin are a minority party – the second biggest after the DUP – but the percentage differences are relatively small and it is probable that some time in the next 30 or 40 years, they may become the biggest party in Northern Ireland. The problem for them however is that, having resisted majority rule for so long, they can’t just dump power-sharing when they become the majority themselves. Whether they like it or not, they will be joined at the hip to the Unionists in Northern Ireland for the forseeable future.
Neither is it likely that Sinn Féin will ever become the dominant political player in the Republic. Politics in Ireland is based around coalitions with centre-right parties such as Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael taking much of the vote. Apart from Sinn Féin, none of these parties have much stomach for a constitutional fight with Britain or with Unionists over how they should be governed. It’s a view which would resonate also among a large proportion of Southern Irish voters who are more interested in economic prosperity than they are in some sort of political reunification of North and South.
Sinn Féin, therefore, are left with an aspiration, in much the same way as the incumbent Irish political parties “aspire” to re-unification on the island. When it becomes likely, as I think it will, that Sinn Féin will not make much headway in achieving re-unification, what happens then? Is there a possibility that the old chestnut of Irish Unity will come back to haunt this island again some time in the future, and that, yet again, war or hostilities will break out as they have done so many times in the past?
Hopefully, the answer is no. In the end, the Troubles were not so much about political re-unification as they were about civil rights and achieving political influence and justice for the Nationalist community. A well-run political system in Northern Ireland with true representation and fairness may do a lot to head off any future problems as will a Northern Irish state that works hand-in-hand both with Britain and the Republic of Ireland.
Only time will tell.
Passive Impressions 
I’m too ignorant to comment intelligently but I think you’re right that the problem was civil rights, etc. rather than nationalism. It’s an important point that probably applies to the terrorism that everyone is worrying about at the moment.
Well one has to wonder how Sinn Fein expects to convince the Unionists that being part of a unified Ireland will be better for them and generations to come. I don’t believe this ultimate goal can be achieved in a decade or two (although I’d love to be proven wrong). The only hope is that as time passes, the economic situation in the Republic would be so much better than the one in Northern Ireland.
How could this economic imbalance become such an incentive? My guess is that if the British army leaves its bases in the North, with it will go quite a substantial source of revenue for the local economy. What’s more with local government it will be largely up to the Northern assembly to direct the North’s economy.
Considering that the two main players are finding it hard to talk to each other I can’t see how they will agree on major economic reforms that could benefit the region.
Once the economic gap is big enough, I’m pretty sure that the working class population from both sides will agree: we would be better off being part of a unified Ireland. How long will this take? I suspect a few generations.
Both sides need to learn to trust the other again and not fear to get stabbed in the back.
Oh to have a crystal ball…
I agree with Dan…Irish unity was one solution, but it’s lack wasn’t necessarily the problem.
Another significant thing that’s happened is Europe. All over Europe…with the possible exception of (mainland) Britain, people are realising that borders are an encumbrance. Ireland is very clearly Northern Ireland’s economic, political and social hinterland. And, of couse, given Ireland’s relative success, the Northerners have everything to gain.
As to whether SF will be able to use Stormont effectively to push their Socialist agenda…here it gets really interesting. What’s happened in Scotland is that our much weaker Parliament has had some – limited, agreed – success in resisting New Labour ‘reforms’. I suspect that this has been due, in good measure, to the ‘JFDI’ attitude that’s possible in a smaller administrative unit. Both the LibDems and SSP have been able to influence policy – and give them their due, Scottish Labour has occasionally managed to break free from New Labour orthodoxy. It remains to be seen how this will play against the more conservative DUP. But note that they are fundamentally a grassroots working class party – and the assembly will be close to its grassroots and will have to deliver on social policy. And the DUP isn’t just full of screaming bigots. Note that (damn! his name termporarily escapes me. guy with a tache who died abbout Nov last year) was active in ensuring the gay equality legislation was pushed through early by Hain.
One area of difficulty might be schooling. McGuinness’s big thing was abolishing the 11 plus. Might this conflict with those who want to keep education sectarian?
Thanks for your comments –
Pirlam, I’m not sure if a gap would influence things politically. There was a big economic divide in the other direction between the Republic and the North for years but it never really made much difference from a political point of view. (It did however feed a huge smuggling industry – the bigger the gap the better!) I’ve got a hunch that if unity were to be achieved it would be based on a very small economic gap between the different jurisdictions.
Ed – I think you are talking about David Ervine? He wasn’t DUP, he was PUP, allied in later years to the Ulster Unionists. Ervine was seen by many, north and south, as a moderate, but he had a tiny political base. That said, the DUP is not the monolithic structure it once seemed to be. There are progressive and conservative elements within the party, and it seems that there are a lot of disagreements happening between them behind closed doors. Any time they ever have to make a hard decision, these disagreements seem to surface.
I don’t think Sinn Féin is terribly interested in what the Catholic Church has to say. It would see itself as more “Irish” than “Catholic”, as the Church would have been a big critic of Sinn Féin all throughout the Troubles. In addition to this, the Sinn Féin leadership’s essentially Marxist ideology would make them very suspicious and dismissive of all religions. It’s feasible that a Sinn Féin education minister would open the door to integrated education.
Yes, it was Ervine. And I was momentarily confused about his party. The point remains, though – Loyalism, for all its factions, is essentially a grassroots, working class movement.
I wasn’t meaning to imply that SF would be influenced by the church re sectarian schooling. I think they might have problems with opposition from the Loyalists, though. It certainly seemed to be McGuinness’s intention to integrate education. But am I right in remembering that the DUP specifically opposed him having that role in future – with the suspicion that his background was partly an excuse?
Interesting article here from the New Statesman:
When you look at this from different perspective, isn’t it possible that this entire problem will evaporate on it’s own, maybe in less than generation?
I mean, when all EU policies become widely accepted, natural part of daily life, the border between North and South should pretty much, for all practical purposes, just disappear, no? Seems to me also that the role of the local State governemnts, as a political entities, will be marginalized to great extent as time goes (and as EU policies are implemented).
And the old hatreds should go with it. Well, of course hatred = people, and it does not change quickly, but the greatest hope lies, I think, in the new generations – generations to busy to bother with ancient, irellevant emotions.
And that, as far as I understand it, is the core idea of EU, right?
Aren’t there signs of this present already – wasn’t the mentioned progress largery due to changes that EU membership brought to Ireland?
You know the best that today’s Ireland is not the old Ireland anymore, for that very reason. Maybe you worry to much 🙂
Just my 2c in…
Time for a book recommendation:
I’ve just read Roddy Doyle’s ‘Paula Spencer’. All sorts of parallels drawn between the new life of a recovering alcoholic and the new Ireland.
My favourite line (and Doyle’s great at packing a lot into a single line) is when her neighbour is raving about a Christmas shopping trip to Newry:
“You’d love it there. For start, everyone in the shops is Irish.”
The Celtic Tigers looking with yearning towards their backward cousin.
I’ve been focusing on Roddy Doyle’s childrens books recently, but I’ve read a lot of him in the past – “The Snapper” is a hoot – “Yer wha?”
There is still a fairly strict segregation when it comes to schooling in NI (as there is in the ROI to a large extent). There was a serious incident some time back involving a young man, Michael McIlveen, who was killed in a sectarian attack carried out I believe, by teenagers. The good thing to come out of it, I would think given the media furore at the time, is that this stuff is less tolerable any more.
The decline of religion all over Ireland should eventually spell the demise of sectarianism too, or is that too simplistic an analysis?
A Northern entity working side by side with the South and with Britain is probably the most stable likelihood for the foreseeable future.
The migration of the middle class vote towards the DUP is an interesting phenomenon. Obviously it’s largely in reaction to an increasing SF vote – many in Northern Ireland would no more countenance voting SF than those in Ireland would.
So…the question is…why the withering of the SDLP/Alliance in favour of SF? How are they capturing the middle class/ democratic left/ nationalist vote?
I’m nearly certain, but when I was looking at the vote, constituency by constituency, it seemed to me that the middle class vote is fragmenting more and more both for Unionists and Nationalists. A Green MLA and a Chinese Independent MLA were both elected from middle-class areas. In working-class areas were more solid traditional voting. I think Alliance are doing quite strongly in those areas too.
The real problem parties are the UUP and the SDLP, both of which would have been perceived as middle-class parties.
There’s probably something of a network effect going on. SF are extremely hard-working in their areas, and now that they have given up the guns they are appealing much more to a broader nationalist vote. I’ve a feeling too that the UUP are still suffering from agreeing to joint-government with SF too early, plus a view that their leadership is divided and lacking charisma. The SDLP suffer from a charisma problem too. John Hume had it in spades – his successors, less so.
On the radio yesterday I overhead a presenter say that Northern Ireland is more divided along sectarian lines now than it ever has been in the past.