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Ireland: How to turn a Crisis into a Disaster

October 25, 2008 //

It’s not such big news considering the global situation, but Ireland’s fabled “Celtic Tiger” got shot a few months ago. Shot, gutted, skinned, skewered and then roasted. Like an express train travelling at 200kph towards a half-finished bridge, everyone saw it coming, but few dared to scream halt. The whole country was complicit in an unprecedented property scam. Ireland, for a while, became the land of the golden SUV. People were taking four holidays a year. You were measured by the size of your kitchen extension.

And all this time, the government was rolling it in. Larging it up. The cash was there from increased taxes and almost full-employment, so why not give this nation of habitual complainers the services they always wanted? Every spare penny was spent on cushioning: padding out the public services, propping up the salaries, silencing discontent with cash. Nobody complained. How could they? Nobody, after all, likes a party pooper. 

But then, in 2007, the property market crashed. Crash. Bang. Wallop. Thud. Every month since then, less and less money has flowed in as waves of construction workers and their dependents find themselves out of a job. The Irish Government, with no money stored away for a rainy day, is now broke. Officially, indisputably, skint.

And yet, the public expectation is that the Celtic Tiger services stay exactly the same. That’s the public for you and who can blame it? You fight hard to get your privileges, and damned if you are not going to put up a fight if someone tries to take them away. 

You would think, in a situation such as we find ourselves in today, that the political classes might get together to figure out what needs to be done. All the parties – government, opposition, everyone. Get the best administrators, the most capable leaders, the most innovative thinkers, and put together a plan that hurts like hell, but eventually gets the country out of the mess it now finds itself in. 

Instead, what we find is political point-scoring on a massive scale. The entire opposition has decided that siding with the populace is the way to go. That sympathising with Mr and Mrs Murphy on Leitrim St is going to solve the countries problems. That blame is better than solution finding. That it is better to seize the opportunity now to get elected than to be constructive and engaged in solving this overwhelmingly bad situation. 

Well, oppositiony politiciany folks – we need your rampant opportunism now like a chasm in the head. Unless you start telling us how you are going to solve the political crisis by making deep, painful cuts in public expenditure or increasing taxes, could I ask you to fuck off and leave the professionals to it?

There. Rant over.

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Categories Ireland, opinions, politics

Lisbombed – Why the Yes side failed

June 13, 2008 //

I can think of 5 reasons.

1) A slow start. While the government was busy changing its leaders, the NO campaign had plenty of time to prepare. The YES side appeared to be blind-sided by the intensity and focus of the NO people, and subsequently spent the rest of the campaign on the back-foot.

2) Simple Messages. The Yes side failed to create simple reasons why a YES vote would be advisable. They had no equivalent to “Keep our commissioner”, “Tell Mandelson where to go”, “If you don’t know, vote NO”. On the YES side it was just blandishments: “A stronger voice in Europe”, yadda, yadda.

3) Populism: The NO campaign was much more populist, much more likely to appeal to the man on the street, whereas the YES campaign conveyed a perception that “we know better than you”. The NO side capitalised on this, and particularly benefited from support by the highly effective communication skills of popular contrarians such as Eamonn Dunphy and Shane Ross.  

4) Fear: The YES side didn’t do enough to allay people’s fears. One woman on the radio voted No yesterday because she didn’t want her son to be conscripted! Others feared unrestricted abortions and goodness knows what else. A secretive French plan to assault the Irish taxation system was mentioned. Thousands of people were scared into voting no.

5) Confusion. This was one seriously complicated piece of legislation. Few would have the time or inclination to tease out the minutiae. Even if you wanted to vote YES, you might still have niggling doubts. Better the devil you know, then. 

Whatever your views on the matter, it has to be admitted that the NO side ran an extremely smart campaign. The YES campaign didn’t do enough to anticipate what they might do, and now they will reap the whirlwind. 

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Categories Ireland, opinions, politics

Lisbon, bloody Lisbon

June 8, 2008 //

Utter confusion

In a few days the Irish people vote on one of the most inscrutable, inpenetrable and incomprehensible pieces of legislation that has ever been put in front of any populace, anywhere: the Lisbon Treaty.

24 out of the 25 other member states of the EU shied off putting Lisbon to a referendum for good reason. It’s impossible to read. Most of our politicians haven’t read it either.

It’s a complete mess. On the “No” side are the usual suspects: the anti-abortionists, the pro-neutrality crowd, the “Ourselves Alone” bloc, the anti-immigrant league and various conspiracy theorists and assorted weirdos. On the “Yes” side is the establishment – the politicians, the trade unions, the church, the farmers and the main lobby groups.

Both compaigns have employed very different strategies to gain electoral support. The No Camp have gone for the jugular with direct, easily digestible messages such as “They won’t see you, they won’t hear you, they won’t speak to you”, or “If you don’t know, vote No”.The Yes Camp have decided to use bland messages and to appeal to authority. A happy shiny face of some politician accompanies each poster with the implication that because X is voting Yes, you should too. They appeal to negative consequenses, telling us that all sorts of bad things will happen if we vote No.

In the end, it’s a battle between the Red Herring on one side and Darth Vader on the other.

Me? I’m probably going to vote yes, but I’m open to convincing. I am pro-European and I don’t think there is anything in this treaty that will herald the end of the world. Europe has been a hugely positive force in Ireland, has done a good job in bringing Ireland out of the Stone Age over the last 40 years. Personally, I don’t think that Ireland as a part of an integrated European Union is a bad thing.

My sense is that the referendum will be rejected, but we’ll see how it turns out.

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Categories Ireland, politics

Ten things Bertie was unlikely to say

April 30, 2008 //

Bertie Ahern delivered his swan song to the joint houses of Congress today.

Here are a few things he was unlikely to say to his American audience…

  1. Ah howya, Nancy. Yer lookin’ good!
  2. On behalf of Her Royal Majesty, I am glad to be here today.
  3. Infidels! You all die now!
  4. Ah for feck’s sake: you ask me to speak here but you couldn’t even put me in a proper gaff last night..
  5. The following Irish wish is appropriate tonight.. “Ciúnas bóthar cailín bainne”..
  6. Whew! It’s a lucky thing I won’t be Taoiseach for the Lisbon Treaty Referendum..
  7. Thank goodness we got an agreement in Northern Ireland before that plank, Bush, was elected..
  8. You should take a look at my successor – he looks like a bulldog licking piss of a nettle..
  9. I’m goin’ to Boston to get pissed! I’ll be cryin’ plenty of tears for Parnell then, wha?
  10. And to the Irish people, I say… so long suckers! I bought a one way ticket and I’m claiming asylum here..

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Categories Ireland, politics

The world outside the window

January 6, 2008 //

I got to see CBS Evening News last night. It featured a lot of coverage of the Iowa Caucus and the snowstorms on the US west coast. At the end of the program was a longish feature on a 7 year old boy who was about to climb Kilimanjaro. “If you put your mind to it, you can do anything” he said to us all. Aww bless.

No mention however of Kenya, and the huge struggle for democracy going on there at the moment. It’s been the number one news item for the rest of the world over the last few days, where a positive result to this crisis might issue in a new era in African politics. A negative result, on the other hand, could cause the biggest humanitarian crisis since Rwanda.

A little boy climbing Kilimanjaro was more newsworthy, apparently.

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Categories opinions, politics

Probably the best paid public servants in the world..

October 26, 2007 //

 Bertie Ahern

Our senior politicians and civil servants have awarded themselves huge pay increases, bringing our Great Leader’s salary up to 310,000 euro, and those of other senior personnel to over 200,000 euro. The salary increases have been made to keep the pay of senior public professionals in line with the private sector.

Now, while I don’t have a major problem with key people in leadership positions earning high salaries, what amazes me is the government’s utter lack of forethought about how this news may potentially affect the economy. Because some people have attained much higher percentage rises than others, a widespread perception of inequality has almost definitely been created within the public sector. This news is likely to blow the existing pay agreements out of the water. It also means that industrial action and wildcat strikes are now more likely, with a corresponding knock-on hit to productivity and inflation.

To make matters worse, the government have just weakened their own negotiation position when it comes to future industrial disputes. In their minds, the conditions seemed right to justify a large pay increase for themselves. The precarious state of our economy seems not to have been much of a factor presumably. But who would bet against it being a HUGE factor in the broader round of bargaining ahead? It looks like one law for the élite, and something else for the rest of the population.

Another thing I am picking up is that the salaries were recommended by an independent board, tasked at benchmarking comparable salaries against the public sector. “Blame them, not us” the politicians seem to be saying. Clearly, that’s a rubbish argument. Do politicians automatically accept every single recommendation that passes their desk? And how many are accepted with such haste? A wiser set of politicians might have opted to forego their pay raises, recommendation or no recommendation.

I have a feeling that it’s now going to be a long, hard winter, all thanks to our political masters’ generous pay increases.

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Categories Ireland, politics

The M3 Tara controversy – a storm in a teacup?

September 8, 2007 //

The Hill of Tara

Pat Kenny hosted a radio program from the Hill of Tara yesterday. Tara has a huge amount of significance in the mythology and pre-history of Ireland. It was the seat of the Irish high-kings and the archaeological features in the area are extensive and fascinating. Although built on a low ridge overlooking the River Boyne, the views over the Irish midlands are quite spectacular.

Over the past two years, Tara has rarely been far from the headlines because of a proposed motorway (the M3) that will pass near the Hill on its way to Cavan and Fermanagh. From the press coverage of recent years, you would think that the Hill itself was going to be bulldozed away, given the level of public debate on the issue!

The Kenny show yesterday blew the protestors’ case away in an utterly convincing fashion. We discovered that the construction of the motorway had the support of the vast majority of the local population, so much so that it wasn’t even an issue for Co. Meath voters in the last general election. We discovered that most of the protestors (90%) were non-local. We discovered that the current road (the N3) is utterly unable to cope with the volume of commuter traffic. We discovered that the recently discovered Lismullin earthworks, found along the route of the motorway, were nothing special in the context of Irish archaeology. (You can’t throw a stone in this country without hitting an ancient monument of some sort – this country contains up to 60,000 ring forts alone). We discovered that most of the protestors had no role to play in the public consultation phase prior to the final routing decision. The protestors themselves were found wanting when questioned. To me it seemed that their arguments were high on emotion and thin on rationality. Even worse, they had brought along a bunch of yahoos who did nothing to help their case: they continually hooted, insulted and interrupted the speakers from the government / development side.

Supporting the protest case was a nice “hug the stones” little ditty from Liam O’Maonlaí, which had me rushing to find a cigarette lighter so I could swing my arms in unison with the song. A pro-motorway singer couldn’t be found, strangely enough.

It seems to me that the Tara M3 Motorway is perfectly reasonable and logical in the light of a rapidly expanding capital city and a northwest region that badly needs major infrastructural investment to keep up with the rest of the country. The motorway works itself may actually help us to uncover new knowledge about our distant ancestors. Diligent archeological work will be performed on the motorway site throughout the entire development. This is in contrast to the many thousands of monuments cleared away by private developers and farmers all the time with no consultation or discussion. The protestors have (yet again) pointed their ire at the wrong culprits.

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Categories Ireland, politics

Insightful rhetoric and witty repartee? I think not..

June 27, 2007 //

The House of Commons in Britain is known for it’s devilishly clever exchanges, memorable put-downs, devastating one-liners and monumental battles of intellect and logic.

We in Ireland have to put up with this*…

This is a dialogue in Dáil Éireann (the Irish Parliament) yesterday between John O’Donoghue and Michael Ring.

Where is the time-out corner when you need it?

Update: Here’s the Curry Chips take on it..

* Real Player required.

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Categories Ireland, politics

The Irish Election – what the bookies say

May 23, 2007 //

I want to test the Wisdom of Crowds theory that I talked about some time ago, so what better example than the fast approaching Irish General Election? I decided yesterday evening to spend some time looking at Paddy Power’s betting on the outcome, candidate by candidate.

Based strictly on the odds being offered and the number of seats available, the analysis breaks down this way:

Fianna Fail: 72-73*

Fine Gael: 49-50

Labour: 16-18

Green: 9

Sinn Féin: 8

Progressive Democrats: 2

Others: 8

(In two constituencies, Wicklow and Kerry South, the odds were the same for last place, so I have shown a range instead of a single number).

If this were true, high profile casualties would include Ruairi Quinn, Joan Burton, Donie Cassidy, Jackie-Healy Rae, Niall Blaney, Tom Parlon, Liz O’Donnell, Martin Mansergh and Michael Woods.

This scenario is something of a nightmare for the two major political alliances. It leaves Fianna Fail and the PD’s with 75 seats and a “rainbow” coalition of Fine Gael, Labour and the Greens with 77 seats: well shy of the 84 seats needed to form a new government. Both coalitions would need the support of independents and possibly even Sinn Féin.

If this prediction comes true, the only viable administration would be a Fianna Fáil / Labour alliance (and how long that would last is anyone’s guess).

In any case there is plenty of room for manoeuvre. The number of listed candidates that are almost certain to win is 75. 190 other candidates will have a fight on their hands if they are to win one of the remaining 91 seats**.

More detailed information on each candidate can be found in the attached PDF. Let’s see what transpires tomorrow, shall we?

Election Predictions 2007

* Rory O’Hanlon (FF) is already deemed elected since he was Ceann Comhairle (chairman) in the last Dáil.

** My calculations are based on a “definite” being a bet of 10-1 on (91%) or greater, and a “close call” being less than 10-1 on but greater than or equal to 4-1 (20%).

Update: I had to revise my calculations because I was previously showing probabilities of 2000%, etc, which is ridiculous – a probability can not be greater than one!

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Categories Ireland, politics

One nation under George

April 25, 2007 //

Semantic Drift posted an article from Salon magazine about how the Bush Administration has been hiring graduates from the ultra-conservative Regent College, founded by Pat Robertson.

“U.S. News and World Report, which does the definitive ranking of colleges, lists Regent as a tier-four school, which is the lowest score it gives. It’s not a hard school to get into. You have to renounce Satan and draw a pirate on a matchbook. This is for the people who couldn’t get into the University of Phoenix.”

It seems that in Washington these days, your religious conviction trumps lesser talents such as brainpower and ability.

I would have fallen off the seat laughing if it were not so discomfiting. Anyhoo – it’s worth a read.

Hmm. “Faith Based Politics”. Anyone for a “Faith Based Car”? Or, perhaps, a “Faith Based Nuclear Power Station”? Thought not.

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Categories politics
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